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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44669)9/22/2003 6:42:03 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Weak $ took its toll on the market today, however I believe the real issue is euro, despite general market consensus for further Euro appreciation, there are significant near-term risks to this view.

1. US economic recovery. The largest risk to EUR/USD upside remains a US economy that consistently beats expectations. Reflation story is USD positive but EUR negative

2. The relative unattractiveness of the Euro zone economy when compared with the US. In contrast to robust US growth estimates, Euro zone GDP growth was flat in Q1 and slightly negative in Q2. Weaker $ will lead to weaker exports from Europe, that would complicate the issue of Euro zone economy further. Stronger EUR is making conditions worse. The latest GDP data from the Euro zone suggests that a strong EUR had a negative impact on growth and a particularly punishing effect on European exporters.
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