Market Comments
Gold
ST trend - up (losing momentum)
IT trend - up
LT trend - up
Last time I had a nice catch - the 341 low
Message 19076426
>>Tuesday, Jul 1, 2003 2:20 PM
....Gold
ST trend - up
IT trend - up (needs more confirmation)
LT trend - up
Looks like the bull should continue from somewhere around here (latest low 343) or just a bit lower around 341.
A close over 363.5 will confirm the uptrend is at work and will indicate higher highs (400+) down the road, which will IMO carry higher momentum then the previous leg up, as in my count we should begin on the 3 of 3 wave of the LT up trend>>
ST trend looks like losing momentum
The IT target remains 400+
So far it looks like a normal up trend but if Gold doesn't stop at 400-420 for a nice correction then a fast trend could develop.
Let's say a trade over 430, or a close over 425 before the next correction will indicate that Gold is entering a blow off mode, with highs much higher then anyone can imagine down the road. But this is just a possibility, while the "normal" behavior would be correcting from the new high first.
Currencies
USD
ST trend - fast down (oversold)
IT trend - down, intensifying
LT trend - down
The Dollar is breaking down, especially against the yen. DXY broke important support and could bounce or pause a day or two before resuming the down move.
Yen
In a fast move up. Extreme intraday volatility in the last couple of weeks is indicating this move has giant momentum.
So a bounce back or pause (after all - a move from 117.5 to 111 in 6 trading sessions is quite extraordinary) and then vrooommmm again. Two digits Yen to Dollar will be seen sooner then most believe.
Euro
More reasonable up trend. IT target is a new high 1.20-1.25 together with Gold's 400-420 target
Equities
Japan
LT trend - up
IT trend - probably reversed down
ST trend - down (tonight should be up, though)
Europe
Continent (DAX, CAC, AEX)
ST trend - down
IT trend - reversed down
LT trend - down
They look the worse markets. Used the first excuse given by US equities to reverse down with awfull looking patterns.
S&P
ST trend - down
IT trend - reversed down
LT trend - up
longer term - down
I think there is now some confirmation that the IT trend has been completed and reversed.
My best scenario is that we've completed an ABC from the 10/2002 low and this was the 1st part of the bear market rally. Now a sharp correction taking back over half of the advance in 3 months, then another 6 months for the 2nd part of the bear rally, that will go marginally higher then the current 1036 high, probably to the fib. 1070 level. The LT bear should resume to new lows late next year.
ATG |
