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Non-Tech : ABXA.ob ABX air former subsid Airborne
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To: Andrew G. who wrote (1)9/24/2003 4:42:47 PM
From: boneil55  Read Replies (1) of 5
 
Andrew,

Thanks for starting the thread. I would caution you on using the cash flow figures the other poster used. They are based on historical numbers, and in this case, are not relevant, as the new ACMI contract ABX signed with Airborne is different that the historical agreement.

From my analysis, the company should do about 60 mil in EBITDA this year and have 10 mil in interest expense -- so, 50 mil in CFFO (they will pay no taxes for years). However, they will spend about 80-90 mil in cap ex this year (for the delivery of some planes), so the company is actually not generating FCF at this point.

I agree it is an interesting situation, and could work out exceptionally well especially if they can generate significant 'third' party business. It is just not as compelling as the historical cash flow figures would have you believe.

--Brian

By the way, could you repost the link to the original source? I tried the other one, and it didn't work. Thanks.
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