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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 695.59

+0.4%

Jan 27 4:00 PM EST

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To: Night Trader who wrote (83964)	9/25/2003 11:53:42 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Impact of Terrorism on Presidential Election: This may seem callous, but my purpose for calling attention to this possibility is investment-related. I've found that when my Fear Factor indicator hits a major low (meaning fear of terrorism is at its most intense), the Stock Market tends to hit a low 3-5 weeks later. What I'm suggesting, therefore, is that the risk of a major incident is low in this period and the months ahead. It begins to rise a little, I believe, around this coming January and will probably be at its greatest in the Summer and early Fall of '04. I'm not trying to call the election so much as factor in the effect of the perceived and actual threat level on stock prices. I'm expecting a low in the 1st half of October from the 2nd anniversary of 9/11, then we can rally again, because it's not likely that the leaders of Al Quaeda and other terrorist groups have anything major planned till sometime next year.

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