Steve; I met my wife downtown about 11:30 AK time, told her I was taking a beating today. Loosing all my gains (mainly BGO induced) from yesterday. She told me "I think you need it". I think she was correct (she always is you know).
Start here with gold futs. I don't see a problem yet. I see a sharp corrective which is probably healthy. No trendline breaks. The mo on the dailies has been declining somewhat but too early to conclude anything. On the weeklies still rising, but not yet in a real danger zone.
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Go to the Dec dollar futs. A few probes in the 93.75 area, bears watching but indicators are support will fail, and further downside is coming. Dollar does not yet show signs of arresting imho.
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Now to the HUI. Last night I did notice some quirks, but did not see this sharp correction. I noticed the mo on the weekly pretty high, enough to be a little bothersome, yet the mo on the daily low and falling. The falling part was strange, given the past few days action. I noted we appeared to be ending a little impulsive wave, yet that wave was well below the top of the channel, indicating weakness. So a correction was coming, but I did not in any way see the sharpness of this.
Re my EW the primary is probably out, the alternate probably in.
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The proper place for the lower channel line is somewhat subject to question imo. I'm showing two, a prior and a min.
This corrective so far looks like a very sharp abc minor. It may have a tad to go to complete the c. There should be a bounce. It will be hard to tell from the bounce, initially, whether we are in a iv or a 4, right now it looks like a iv.
I can do a count that has us in a 4, but don't like it much.
If we break the channel I'm probably heading out, I've promised myself that. I've no reason to hang around since I've been in a long time.
If the correction is a minor and we still have to finish the iv of 3, and then a v of 3 to complete the 3, it would appear prudent to sell into the v. This is what I've wanted to do all along here. I think the 4 could be harsh. So ... still hoping this is a iv of 3.
Your own strategy would depend on where you have been and where/how you want to move forward. I do agree with Russell at this point, and that basically is if folks don't have a LT strategy re gold they should get off the fence and get one. |
