I'd feel safe with dell...any pullback is an opportunity when it comes to dell. But yes, overall, I have serious doubts as to the higher highs and higher lows theory, right now. Not sure that is going to hold up. Lots of news on how the economy is not rebounding as we expected....Too many gains and too many nervous people with good gains not wanting them to disappear, and frankly, the tale of the tape is not very pretty. It does not look to me like any support is anyplace close to current levels. Could be a much bigger drop, then we have already gotten. And the more red we see, the more it will have a snowball effect as people are fed up with the uncertainty of equities after 3 years of losses. Nice rally this year. Very nice. I dont think that is working in opur favor. Too many people are ready to sell, and I think when people take a look this weekend, and see how much they lost in just a week, there are going to be ALOT of sellers next week.
I dont mean to be pessimistic. I'm actually trying to be a realist and look at things with an open mind. Yes, we will always go up and always go down. There will be rallies and dips. Always. My concern, is that this is not a dip. Possibly just the end of a mini bull run, in the midst of an overall bear market. If that is indeed the case, we all will be sorry if we hold on and do not take profits. I was siting on about a 130% overall gain for the year going into 2 weeks ago. Today, that gain is down to 55%. In two weeks, I have given up MORE then half the gains I have gotten since the lows. 8 or 9 months to achieve these gains, and poof, more then half are gone in only 2 weeks. And it's not like I am invested in Junk. I like to think I am diverse and in some good quality companies. I have some like FDRY, that are holding up pretty good compared to others, but too many that were up 100% and are now back to up only 25% or so, and looking ugly. I wish I had moved to 50% cash 2 weeks ago, when I first thought the rally was over, as we neared 10k and 2k. If I had done that, I would be like BO and rooting for the markets to get creamed, so I could load up again on the cheap. As it is, I sold some on the way up and am about 15% cash, but still very heavily vested, and dont want any bargains, as the 15% cash I have is not going to do squat if all my investements go into the toilet.
Not sure what to do at this point. Should have placed stops 2 weeks ago, when I thought this rally was over, but I didnt and I can't cry over spilled milk. Must look ahead and make the right decisions. A dip is not a problem to me. It's a healthy, normal reaction to be expected, especially after a nice run. But, I am very diverse and have good quality, and I dont think 8 or 9 months to get 130% gain, and then give back more then half of that in 2 weeks, is just a dip. At this rate, by end of october, I will have losses, not gains, and frankly, I dont see anything to prop this market up and keep rally going, or at least stop the downfall. What looks encouraging to you? Economic data looks bad. Not as good as we expected. Insiders are selling at the fastest rate ever. I dont think we are looking at awesome earnings season, and in fact, I think expectations are so high for good earnings, we are going to be let down. Everything looks negative to me. I wish I could see things thru your eyes, or greg's or lizzies, as you 3 seem to be pretty positive that this is just a small blip in an upward market. I just dont see it that way, but wish I did. |
