Great post Searle, well thought out, and I appreciate your attempt to see and understand the bigger picture. I agree with all of it, but have some reservation about your guess that "Sure, but I have no doubt that will not be in the foreseeable future."
I think the dollar is sliding, it is policy. All they want to do is to control the slide. It may slide much deeper then anyone expects before the US sees any jobs benefit. However, there are consequences.....internal inflation, difficulty attracting foreign investments, and most critically, questions regarding the viability of the world's reserve currency.
The US needs to create jobs. That is it's only salvation, as more jobs decrease debt. I can't see any alternative to a lower dollar inorder to create jobs and monetize debt, except perhaps tariffs. But tarrifs have some terrible consequences as well. They are in a box. They have been there for some time, and as the monthly current account and deficit/debt figures are released, more and more attention and importance will be placed upon this problem.
I don't pretend to know the time frame, and I understand the very large world wide forces coming together to try to prevent what is inevitable, and have been surprised by their strength todate. But, someone once said "you can't fool all the people all the time". |
