I wrote a great long reply to Quidditch then couldn't get it launched, so I'll just submit a few points.
From a quite fundamental perspective ECD is poised to make money. Why, for one thing just selling the assets now built would pay for the stock at the present price.
There is now a 100 million dollar battery plant in Mongolia with probably the best battery technology on the planet.
There is another $85 to 100 million dollar solar plant in Auburn Hills.
There is a battery plant in Kettering Ohio that is worth what $40 million. There is a clean room. There are headquarters and other buildings. There is the cash. If you total up these hard assets you will find hard assets worth the market cap.
On the soft side there are patents. There are tax losses. The dispute with Matsushita is no finished yet. There will be a substantial settlement. Why, because the market is big time and growing. 11,000 new Prius sold in 15 days in Japan. Toyota can't afford to have a blockbuster model excluded from sale in the world's biggest car market. 11,000 cars represents 2.6 million 'D' cells. If that amount holds true for the rest of the year that is over 60 million batteries in Japan's market alone. That is 4 times the production of the factory in Mongolia. If Prius sales go as well in the U.S. and the rest of the world we could see 200 million batteries devoted to hybrids in the next year. If these vehicles are as popular as they are now appearing to be the U.S. companies will be competing in the market as well. There are contracts for research and machine building.
G.E., Intel, STM Microelectronics, even Rare Earth, Texaco, no I don't believe that Ovonics is pulling the wool over anyone's eyes. Is Tyler Lowery a chump, sorry I just don't believe so. Do you think Robert Stemple is napping? Sorry, but I've seen some fantastic changes going on in this company in the last 3-4 years. A lot of money has come into the company. As I tried to indicate in my recent post the joint venture in Mongolia is up and running or should have been. We are expecting sales there of 17 million batteries per year for the near future with revenues of $100 million. The solar plant is up and running as well. My best guess is $150 million per year in 14 months time. There are contracts for the U.S. military to supply solar panels for aircraft and satellites worth $11 million and possibly another $7 million more.
I have no idea yet on how large the hydrogen storage area is but to me it seems a better cheaper solution than all the others that I have heard of so far. Texaco seems to have a good handle on that one. I have seen it demonstrated at annual meetings.
How close are we to production on flash memory? Is it two years from now, or five years? Again I trust that Intel and STM aren't throwing good money after bad. Then there is the contract development with British Aerospace. We are the gorillas in this area. Our memory is radiation hard. Nothing else out there is.
I drive a car which uses Stan's technology. My camera depends for electricity on his invention. I have a CD-RW drive that uses his technology. Soon I guess I will have a DVD-RAM and probably a computer that uses Ovonyx technology. I would say that the future is very close at hand. Profits are much nearer than you expect. Good luck with your investing. If you can stand the uncertainty in the stock sell it but it is a great, great company. |
