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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: James Calladine who started this subject	9/28/2003 2:51:58 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 95525

Ken Fisher: Valuation Myths Kenneth L. Fisher, 09.29.03, 12:00 AM ET forbes.com Don't believe that earnings multiples are too high for a long bull market. For every period where high-P/E markets fizzled, there are those that did well. More From Kenneth L. Fisher Valuations are too high for a long bull market, right? Wrong! The S&P 500 has averaged a 12% total annual return over the last 40 years. It began this four-decade run with prices that averaged, from 1962 through 1963, 18 times expected earnings. That is about where we are today (if you look at earnings before nonrecurring charges). Four decades ago the ten-year Treasury bond was yielding somewhere around 5%. That's about where it is now. If these levels didn't hurt buyers of stocks in 1962-63, why should they hurt today's buyers? Why won't the next 40 years be as good as the last 40? If you say you don't have 40 years, only 5, I would point out that 1963-68 was a good period in which to own stocks. Only 1 year? Okay, 1964 had a great return. [snip]

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