Can the Democrats accept this defeat, or will it be another stolen election?
Poll: Calif. set to oust Davis
By John Ritter, USA TODAY
SAN FRANCISCO — California voters are ready to fire Gov. Gray Davis and replace him with actor and political novice Arnold Schwarzenegger, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds.
(Related link: Poll results)
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Schwarzenegger captures 40% of the vote in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.
By Ringo H.W. Chiu, Getty Images
A week before the vote on recalling the two-term Democrat, 63% of probable voters say they will vote to remove him from office. Three-quarters are unhappy with his job performance. (Related story: Arnold looking good)
Schwarzenegger, a Republican who is making his first run for elective office, captures 40% of the vote in the poll. His closest pursuer, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, receives 25%.
A poll Sept. 9-17 by the Public Policy Institute of California had Bustamante with 28% and Schwarzenegger 26%, indicating that Schwarzenegger gained support after last week's TV debate.
More than two-thirds of independents favor ousting Davis in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll. Schwarzenegger picks up more independents and crossover voters than Bustamante. More ominous for Davis: Nearly a third of Democrats plan to vote for the recall.
"It's looking like a stunning defeat for the Democratic Party at a time when nationally, Bush and the Republicans are suffering," says Bruce Cain, a political science professor at the University of California-Berkeley. "This just shows we've got a very cranky electorate in California that is very unhappy with the status quo."
Earlier California polls had shown the percentage of voters favoring recall as low as 53%.
State Sen. Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican who has been under pressure to quit the race and allow the GOP to unite behind Schwarzenegger in this overwhelmingly Democratic state, drew 18% in the poll. That's up slightly from previous surveys.
McClintock has rebuffed all calls to drop out, but the poll suggests that Schwarzenegger may not need his votes to become the first entertainer to lead California since Ronald Reagan in 1966.
Schwarzenegger receives a favorable approval rating from 63% of voters, down from 82% in a USA TODAY poll in August. By contrast, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of Bustamante.
Only 24% of voters approve of Davis' job performance. He could be the first California governor to be run from office by the voters and only the second in U.S. history. Schwarzenegger's popularity with the voters seems not to be driven by his Hollywood star power: 46% say they aren't a fan of his movies; 39% say they are.
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