The reality for Bush
At this point, the president seems destined to be running through a political minefield. Despite the pep talk at the Waldorf (and the last quarter’s strong 3 percent growth rate), the economy, at this point, is a political liability. There is little chance that the stock market will return to the lofty position it held at the start of the Bush presidency. The federal budget, driven by recession, war and tax cuts, is plunging into the red. The latest government figures show a steady decline in real incomes and a steady rise in the number of Americans living in poverty.
And no matter how you pencil it, the employment number—perhaps the ultimate political indicator—remains bleak. Total hourly employment—people getting paychecks—has dropped from 111.6 million to 108.3 million. While self-employment is rising (by choice and necessity), it’s not rising fast enough to offset the growth in the labor force. As a result, the unemployment rate has risen from 4.2 percent to 6.1 percent. Bush told the CEOs that productivity is improving faster now than the economy is growing. The result: the dreaded “jobless recovery.” As the economy picks up steam, he said, job growth will follow. He had better hope that’s the case: as his dad learned to his dismay, voters’ views of the economy tend to get locked in place in the spring of an election year.
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