The drop-off in fundraising reported by aides to Edwards, Lieberman and Kerry reflects the difficulties each has had in emerging as a clear alternative to Dean, fundraising specialists said. And the inability to raise more money weakens their chances of surviving the expensive 18-day period from Jan. 18, the day of the Iowa caucuses, through the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary to Feb. 3, when primaries and caucuses will be held in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
"The problem, if you [are a donor and] want someone other than Dean, is that there is no focal candidate," said Gary C. Jacobson, a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego. "If there was someone who stood out, then they would start attracting the money that is on the sidelines." For the candidates other than Dean facing the accelerated primary schedule, Jacobson said, "it's going to be a real problem."
"The fundraising is a signal of something else, which is that nobody is capturing the imagination at this time, other than Dean," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute and a political science professor at State University of New York. Dean's challengers "don't have very much time," he said. "If it takes the entire fourth quarter to see which one or two emerges, then they have only five weeks to run the contest before February 3."
During the first quarter, Edwards's campaign received a boost when he reported raising $7.4 million, more than anyone else. For that quarter, Kerry raised $7 million; Gephardt, $3.5 million; Lieberman, $3 million; and Dean, $2.6 million. In the second quarter, Dean took the lead, raising $7.6 million. Kerry dropped to $5.8 million and Edwards to $4.5 million. Gephardt improved modestly to $3.8 million, and Lieberman rose to $5.1 million.
This quarter, with Dean already close to $13 million and aiming for $15 million, Edwards's aides said he will raise about $3 million, Kerry's aides said he will raise between $4.5 million and $5 million, and a spokesman said Lieberman will raise from $4 million to $5 million.
The third-quarter declines for Sens. John Edwards (N.C.), Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) and John F. Kerry (Mass.) threaten their ability to pay for two expensive contests in Iowa and New Hampshire and still have enough cash for the "Super Tuesday" seven-state battleground on Feb. 3, 2004. Aides to Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.) and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) declined to estimate the amount of money they expect to raise by tonight.
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