RtS, I agree with most of what you say, but I am very cautious near term(nominally the next couple of weeks). It may not happen of course, but IMO we have a chance to bottom around the 10th of October just like we did in 1998 and 2002. The "good" earnings reports start to come out about that time which should give an upward "kick" to the market.
The news over the near term will probably be marginally good at best. The market is in "nosebleed" territory - that is enough right there to set the stage for a downward movement.
<How convenient these bad economic numbers have been for fund managers taking profits and looking for cheaper prices at the start of a new quarter.>
Yes, isn't it amazing, but I would call it "good management" on their part. Have you noticed how the "good news" just kept rolling out this summer - day after day - brokerage firms, banks, etc - if I didn't know better, I would say the "management" of each entity taking their turns on a daily basis was very well managed. Do you notice what has happened the last few days - SUN admitting things aren't so good - downgrade today of LSI giving a target price of $6, etc - if I didn't know better, I would say the management of the timing of these announcements was superb to drive the prices down at the end of the quarter and a little beyond to "wind up the spring" again so the market can rebound later this fall further into nosebleed territory.
<Expect a rising btb>
Yes, I expect a rising BtB, but again I am cautious on the height and extent of a rising BtB. As posted recently, the BtB over the past 2+years has been based on an average order input of less than 800M per month. To make the "good times" roll, the order input needs to go to at least the 1500M level, and further would be desirable. When is that coming? - darned if I know. I thought it would happen last year - shows how much I know!:) I don't hear any semi-equips touting big orders - the silence is deafening.
<Yes, the market IS OVERVALUED but it probably is going to get even more so.>
I can go along with that statement, but we have had a pullback here for a few days - how much more to go, before we turn around and start back up the left side of the bubble?
Don |
