Second-tier candidates changing strategy to keep campaigns alive
Oct 1, 2003
Howard Dean's fund-raising success and Wesley Clark's momentum is forcing some Democratic presidential rivals to make a tough choice: Overhaul their strategies or face defeat.
They're choosing to change course rather than get out - at least for now.
Bob Graham has rented an apartment in Iowa for a single-state stand. Joe Lieberman is being told to abandon the Iowa caucuses. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is sharpening criticism of his rivals, fine-tuning a message that has failed to move voters in New Hampshire.
Even John Kerry and Dick Gephardt, formidable candidates backed by key elements of the party, are reassessing their primary strategies in light of Tuesday's deadline to report July-September fund-raising totals.
Money is not the only measure of a candidate's viability, but the filing deadlines have a way of sorting the weak from the strong. The rundown:
-Dean, the former Vermont governor, came out way ahead in the money chase. He raised about $15 million in the third quarter, three times his closest rival. He may abandon the public financing system and its spending limits. Democratic strategists say his money virtually ensures Dean political life beyond New Hampshire and Iowa, even if he loses both early voting states.
"It's shaping up to be a Dean-vs.-whoever race," Democratic consultant Jim Duffy said.
-Clark, the former Army general, still has plenty to prove after entering the race Sept. 17, but raising $2 million or so in less than two weeks gives him instant credibility. Aides say they're having trouble keeping up with requests for fund-raisers and may begin having him appear from remote locations to plead for money.
-Graham, the former governor and current senator from Florida, had his third-straight poor fund-raising quarter. Some supporters and advisers say privately his campaign is doomed, but they are offering him a last shot: Focus on Iowa, site of January's caucuses, in hopes of a top-four finish and some momentum. Graham will decide his fate in meetings this week, although two officials close to the senator predicted Tuesday he would adopt their go-for-broke approach.
-Lieberman, the Connecticut senator and 2000 vice presidential candidate, is under pressure from supporters to stop competing in Iowa. That would save time and money for a campaign that has had its cash and attention curtailed by Dean's surge. All along, Lieberman's strategy has focused on states beyond New Hampshire, particularly Arizona, Delaware, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
-Edwards, the first-term senator from North Carolina, still could raise $20 million this year, but his fund raising has tailed off dramatically. Backers have urged him to focus more on Iowa and South Carolina, where he has made gains in polls, and less on New Hampshire, where his poll ratings lag. Advisers say it's too soon to make that call. Meanwhile, he has begun to criticize Dean, Clark, Gephardt and other rivals as part of what advisers insist is a long-held strategy: Introduce Edwards to voters in the summer and early fall, then distinguish himself from the pack in the late fall and winter.
-Gephardt, the former House minority leader and Missouri congressman, improved on his poor second-quarter money totals and might raise $20 million for the year. That's enough to compete in Iowa, where he is favored, then hope for momentum if he should hold off Dean. The strongest candidate among organized labor, Gephardt took a blow Tuesday when the AFL-CIO decided not to back a candidate in October. Gephardt must build a labor coalition the hard way, union by union.
-Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who cast himself as the early front-runner, has been frustrated by attention lavished on Dean and Clark. He is second to Dean in fund-raising. Public polls show him trailing Dean in New Hampshire, a state Kerry must win, but a Democratic strategist not tied to either campaign said he's seen private surveys with Kerry inching ahead.
The strategist spoke on condition of anonymity, as did several other Democrats who assessed the candidates.
The field also includes former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Al Sharpton - all considered to be underfunded long shots. |
