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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1174)10/2/2003 6:41:29 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
EURUSD Renewed buying is anticipated ahead of Friday's services PMI surveys from the Eurozone, which are expected to have strengthened in September compared to forecasts of a decline in US services. Recall that the Eurozone manufacturing surveys increased while the US declined.

In today's monthly press conference, ECB Chief Duisenberg said the current euro's FX rate is at its 25-year average and that day-to-day movements do not impact the ECB decision-making. Duisenberg's tenor sounded that current interest rate levels were appropriate, giving no hint on when or what will be the next move. Futures markets, however, have priced a chance of a rate hike as early as next year. On inflation, Duisenberg said the appropriate 2004 CPI rate would be below but close to 2%, higher than the previous 1.3% forecast. He reiterated his concern with fiscal indiscipline in some European nations saying a recession does not justify the violation of the 3% deficit/GDP ceiling and calling Italy entering the danger zone. On growth, Duisenberg said he is as confident as he was 4 weeks ago, not more and not less. He reiterated his displeasure for US imbalances saying the US has a big problem with trade and fiscal deficits and hopes that the adjustment will appear via a pick up in US growth. Mr. Duisenberg's term will end in November, when he will be replaced by French Central Bank Chief of France Jean-Claude Trichet.
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