Wow! This makes my day! This is the biggest story in the country, and our media hasn't covered it. I feel like I have spent thirty years in the econut wilderness waiting for this moment. Story from a British media blogger, followed by the BBC story. You read it here first, Folks!
I think it's no exaggeration to say that the Russians have bitchslapped the enviro movement, and in the process done the world a favor.
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The Knight's Move
One of the reasons I've been so busy is the current World Climate Conference in Russia. It's probably the biggest story in the world right now, but is being ignored in favor of local ephemera. Basically, Kyoto is dead and the claim of 'scientific consensus' about anthropogenic climate change lies in ruins. BBC environment correspondent Tim Hirsch is one of the few reporters to realize its significance:
Taken together with a succession of Russian scientists using this conference to cast doubt on the science of global warming, the event is proving something of a nightmare for supporters of worldwide action to combat climate change.
Russians, chess players all, delight in outflanking maneuvers they term "the knight's move." They've completely bamboozled the enviros here, who thought that this would be another grim worryfest like the IPCC meetings. Instead, you have the spectacle of the head of the Russian Academy of Scientists (not a fringe scientist, by any means, although I'm sure the ad hominem attacks will start) saying that the only people who would be affected by the abandonment of Kyoto "would be several thousand people who make a living attending conferences on global warming" (he was quoted in a BNA report, which is subscription only).
I'm working on a longer article on this for a newspaper, I hope, but in the meantime I think it's no exaggeration to say that the Russians have bitchslapped the enviro movement, and in the process done the world a favor.
Posted by Iain Murray at October 2, 2003 11:04 PM | TrackBack
iainmurray.org
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Russia rows further away from Kyoto
By Tim Hirsch
BBC environment correspondent, in Moscow
A senior adviser to President Vladimir Putin has cast further doubt on whether Russia will ever ratify the Kyoto agreement on limiting emissions of the greenhouse gases linked to global warming.
Andrei Illarionov, who advises the president on economic policy, was speaking the day after Mr Putin refused to set a timetable for Russian ratification, angering supporters of Kyoto around the world.
So long as Russia stays out, the UN protocol setting targets for cutting emissions from the burning of fossil fuels cannot take legal effect.
Speaking at the World Climate Change Conference in Moscow, Mr Illarionov told BBC News Online: "The words of President Putin cannot be interpreted as saying that Russia will ratify the Kyoto protocol but that it is just a matter of time. He never said that.
"The president said that we are in the process of studying the Kyoto Protocol and all the consequences of it. That will take time. What decision will be taken remains to be seen."
High costs
Mr Illarionov, a key member of Mr Putin's inner circle of advisers, went on to question whether it would be in Russia's economic interests to sign up to Kyoto, despite the 30% cut in emissions which have taken place since 1990 due to the collapse of traditional smokestack industries.
KYOTO PROTOCOL
Agreed at Kyoto, Japan in 1997
Commits industrialised nations to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases
Emission cuts to average 5.2% below 1990 levels within 10 years
US withdrew in 2001
He argued that economic growth in Russia would bring its emissions back up to 1990 levels by the end of the decade, so it would not have any spare pollution allowances to sell - rejecting the claim that the country stood to gain financially from the treaty.
And beyond 2012, the end date for the targets agreed at Kyoto, the costs for Russia could start to mount if further cuts in emissions were required.
"It's quite clear that the Russian economy is not going to stop at the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that we have today or that we shall have in 2012.
"That's why it is necessary to calculate the costs which will have to be balanced against any possible gains," said Mr Illarionov.
"The United States and Australia have calculated that they cannot bear the economic consequences of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. If they aren't rich enough to deal with those consequences, my question is whether Russia is much richer than the US or Australia?"
Mr Illarionov's analysis is challenged by many economists, including some in Russia, but his downbeat comments indicate how difficult it is going to be to persuade Mr Putin to move ahead with Kyoto.
Taken together with a succession of Russian scientists using this conference to cast doubt on the science of global warming, the event is proving something of a nightmare for supporters of worldwide action to combat climate change.
Story from BBC NEWS:
news.bbc.co.uk
Published: 2003/09/30 14:05:12 GMT
© BBC MMIII |
