my new guru is getting excited.
Things Really Might Be That Good
By James J. Cramer
10/03/2003 10:49 AM EDT
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Market Analysis BULLISH
I might not have been positive enough.
We may have broken the pattern of big up days leading to sharp selloffs.
Dow 10,000 could be closer than we thought.
Positive pattern, positive beyond what I thought possible. Perhaps things are better than anyone thinks on a national level, even as they remain masked by layoffs at high-profile places like Ford, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Data like this morning's make bulls like me, someone who is still betting on Dow 10,000, think I haven't been positive enough. I have been so concerned about mutual fund selling and calendar worries that I thought these rituals would dominate even the positive data that I am hearing in areas like liquid crystal displays, DVDs, cell phones and notebooks, let alone broad spending in housing and retail and auto.
If we can keep the averages up here, we surely have broken the pattern of the last three years where big up days -- more than 2% -- almost always led to sharp selloffs within the next five days. (More data on that later.)
Right now I am watching a market that is embracing the positives in a way that tells me the mutual funds may have finished their selling. I still believe there will be a good entry point next week, better than what we have now, but right now that's looking wrong. I figure it is better to admit how it is looking than to dig my heels in and keep waiting for the mutual funds to finish.
Or, to put it another way, things really may be that good out there, and we truly are about to break out of the range to Dow 10,000 sooner rather than later.
Amazing. Amazing. |
