Big Dog's Boom Boom Room Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: energyplay who wrote (26097)	10/3/2003 6:25:44 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) of 206305

Maybe I and a fellow BDBBR buddy who can reveal his position are now good contrary indicators, but I reduced from 50% margin loaded to 45% cash. Robry's post today is showing a rather weak response to the HDD from this cold weather onset. We are injecting 4 bcfpd more than the weather adjusted 5 yr average. Considering the present NG production relative to the 5 year average makes the demand situation even worse. In mid October last year two surprises occurred that started this Winter with a bang, production got nailed in the GOM and Winter arrived in Mid October. So far there is no sign of a hurricane and if Winter does not start brutal we could have serious injections through November. A mild start to HDD in November along with 4+ bcfpd of excess NG could bring some serious adjustments to the market. Well anyway I do not think the OSX plays will move much until the market sees some improvement in the NG supply demand balance. From my perspective this balance has gotten worse over the last 4 weeks. I reserve the right to change my mind at a moments notice, but I want to see some improvement in demand as well as some indications that drilling activity will rise.

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