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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories
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To: macavity who wrote (709)10/4/2003 3:41:38 AM
From: macavity  Read Replies (2) of 1017
 
IT Outlook : US Bonds.

These remain bullish but we saw a Bearish reversal in Weekly Charts (Bullish reversal in yields) and momentum is turning with prices overbought (relative to the trend).

In terms of Yields:

	MO	PVT	PVTHIGH	PVTLOW
$FVX	BEAR	#N/A	31.16  	27.92
$TNX	BEAR	#N/A	42.22  	39.12
$TYX	BEAR	#N/A	51.15  	48.73


$FVX : BEAR while $FVX < 31.16; NEUTRAL on BREAK
$TNX: BEAR while $TNX < 42.22; NEUTRAL on BREAK
$TYX: BEAR while $TYX < 51.15; NEUTRAL on BREAK

We saw a bullish reversal, but IT_MOMENTUM has still not gone bullish yet. Yields are currently oversold relative to their (bullish) trend.
A move above PVTHIGH would turn me neutral (though I have no positions) and I would require IT_MO to turn to confirm a change in direction.
As the LT_TREND is still bullish, if/when IT Charts go bullish I would expect the yield highs of this year to be challenged/re-tested.

-macavity
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