GOP's higher number of new voters may point to greater turnout Tuesday
By Mike Zapler
Mercury News
In another possible sign of Election Day trouble for Gov. Gray Davis, almost 40,000 more Californians registered as Republicans than Democrats during the heart of the recall campaign, according to figures released Friday by the Secretary of State's Office.
Although the GOP edge in new registrations probably is too small to swing an election in which more than 15 million people can vote, political analysts say it could be an indication that Republicans are more energized than Democrats about the recall -- and more likely to go to the polls Tuesday.
``The numbers themselves aren't terribly significant,'' said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. ``But the Republican gains may be a strong wind of a Republican trend in the electorate. . . . That is likely to hurt Davis and help Arnold Schwarzenegger.''
There were modest gains in voter registration across the board between Aug. 8 and Sept. 22, the final reporting period before the recall election.
To be sure, Democrats still hold a commanding lead over Republicans in overall registration -- 6,718,111 to 5,429,356, or 43.7 percent to 35.3 percent. Davis' problem is that polls show about one-quarter of Democrats plan to vote for the recall, a slice of the electorate almost certain to cost the governor his job if he can't bring them back into his camp before Tuesday.
``That's the gist of the final days of this campaign,'' said Bob Mulholland, an adviser to the state Democratic Party.
Friday's report shows that the recall has spawned at least modest gains in registration. From Aug. 8 through Sept. 22, the number of registered voters grew 2.6 percent, to 15,380,536. From February through September, voter rolls grew by 1.4 percent. County registrars this summer removed from the voter rolls people who had died or relocated, accounting for the smaller figure over that period.
But despite heavy media coverage of Schwarzenegger and his opponents, the increase in new voters fell far short of what the state experienced three years ago during the most recent presidential race. Registration jumped 7.4 percent over a similar period in 2000. There were more registered voters in the state before that election than there are now.
Still, the recall clearly has motivated hundreds of thousands of people to sign up to vote. ``The increases we've seen are pretty significant,'' said Stephen Weir, Contra Costa County's registrar-recorder. In Santa Clara County, registration increased by about 3 percent from early August to late September, slightly outpacing the state.
Robin Haleber was among those who registered recently as a Republican. A 39-year-old unemployed former business analyst from Cupertino, Haleber's registration had lapsed since he last voted -- in 1998 for Davis.
The governor's performance has been so underwhelming since then, Haleber said, that it spurred him to get involved in politics again -- on the other side.
``I've been laid off for the last two years and I don't see anything good coming out of the Gray Davis administration,'' he said. ``If we maintain what we have now, I may be out of a job for another two or three years.''
Mike Wintemute, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, called the GOP registration gains remarkable in light of the Democrats' longstanding advantage. The party signed up thousands of voters during the recall petition drive and has continued those efforts throughout the campaign, paying people as much as $9 for each voter who registers as a Republican.
``For the minority party to out-register the majority party is a significant development,'' he said. ``Will it change the election? Probably not. But we're winning, anyway.''
But Mulholland downplayed the numbers. ``Despite all the hoopla, this in no way compares to a presidential year,'' he said, attributing the Republican gains to the unique circumstances surrounding the recall.
Currently, 71.3 percent of people who are eligible to vote are registered, a slight decline since last year, according to the Secretary of State's Office.
Probably more important than registration to the outcome Tuesday is turnout -- the share of registered voters who actually show up to vote. Several election officials say they expect turnout to exceed last year's dismal 50.6 percent, but probably fall well short of the November 2000 election, when 71 percent of registered voters cast ballots.
Pitney said the candidate who is most effective at helping supporters navigate the long ballot and get to their polling places could win. A registered Republican, the professor said he recently received a mailer from Schwarzenegger showing where his name appears on the ballot.
``The trick isn't so much registering new voters, but mobilizing and educating existing voters -- to make sure they know where their polling place is and where to find their candidate on the ballot,'' Pitney said. |
