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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (39171)10/5/2003 6:13:13 AM
From: maceng2  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Well, I suppose its OK to be a bull, but please do not try and feed me B/S. Let me spell it out for you as you plainly are not listening...

Message 19347619

in addition, the Labor Department is employing month for month the same two practices that camouflage the horrible reality. In July, for example, it reported a decline in payrolls by 44,000, while job losses for June were revised upward from 30,000 to 72,000. For May, the retrospective upward revision was even from 17,000 to 70,000. As such upward revisions of job losses in the prior month have become a regular feature, this practice has the convenient effect of producing correspondingly lower new numbers every month. The same happens, at more moderate scale, with weekly reported claims.

There is still more spinning involved. The government adds every month some 30,000-50,000 imaginary workers to the job total. It is based on the assumption that in an economic recovery a lot of people start their own business. In normal recoveries, they have done so, indeed.

All it needs to activate this statistical job creation is a unilateral decision by the government that the economy is in recovery. Once a year, the statisticians reconcile their assumption with reality by a revision. When they did this in May of this year, 400,000 new jobs that had been reported earlier simply vanished. Such revisions, of course, take place outside the monthly reported job losses. Together, we presume, these statistical casuistries have reduced the reported job losses in the past two years by well over 100,000 per month.


Message 19338445

None of this is relevant.None of this explains why or how the numbers were supposed to be faked.

ding dong... Hello... anyone at home?? -g-
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