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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (1269)10/6/2003 11:51:43 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I hear you, big guy... numerous stresses on LT rates

- heavy new supply of Trez issuance
- lagged monetary expansion since 2001
- Asian import prices
- GSE agency convexity from hedges
and the last is the best
- belief that the USEconomy is gaining strength

I truly believe that the deception on USEcon strength will eventually hit the administration on LT rates
it saw a shock in late July across the globe
a recoil in bond markets is likely to see a round #2

with rising rates, unaccompanied by rising profits, we should see that stock market fall soon
it could be Christmas and a lackluster performance

the irony is that the recovery will not occur as long as retail sales are brisk

/ jim
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