Latest from SJ Mercury on poll numbers:
"The allegations have had little impact on Schwarzenegger's chances.
The poll also found that a majority of women support the recall, and -- despite the accusations -- more women plan to vote for Schwarzenegger than Bustamante.
``I didn't like him even before he started running for governor,'' Linda Doty, 59, of Terra Bella in the Central Valley, said of Schwarzenegger. ``But when he was interviewed I thought, `Yeah, he can do the job.' ''
Elway said that could be explained by the type of voters who are giving the recall its winning margin -- people who normally don't vote but say they will Tuesday because of deep disdain for Davis' policies and enthusiasm for Schwarzenegger's political-outsider message.
Tip the balance
Those voters, who either are newly registered or have voted in fewer than half of the previous six elections, tipped the poll in favor of both ``yes'' on the recall and Schwarzenegger as the replacement.
Such new or infrequent voters may view the allegations against Schwarzenegger as just another distasteful helping of traditional politics.
``They are seeing these charges coming in at the end and it looks like politics as usual, so it sort of reinforced their attitudes,'' Elway said.
The softening in support for the recall could be coming instead from Democrats, Republicans and independents who were supporting the recall and backing other candidates, but are now having second thoughts about casting a ``yes'' vote that could catapult Schwarzenegger to the governor's office, Elway said.
But Davis and Bustamante may be swimming against a strong political tide. The enthusiasm among voters who don't usually go to the polls mirrors the surge of new voters that carried another charismatic political outsider, former professional wrestler and actor Jesse Ventura, to the governorship of Minnesota in 1998.
In California, the new and infrequent voters are mostly younger than 44 years old, with middle incomes and at least some college education. They describe their political views as either middle-of-the-road or conservative." |
