Would I buy or sell Rambus now?
Hell if I know.
Probably depends on point of view, and investment philosophy.
I'm holding on for the big kahuna, hoping that all DRAM makers end up paying royalties on DDR, and perhaps even up-ramp RDRAM production. I'm hoping that by 2006 or 2007, with Rambus and the DRAM makers having set aside their differences, that XDRAM has an important and growing role in PCs, and not just another niche, as occured for RDRAM.
For the shortterm, I think the stock will be very favorably presented at the quarterly earnings report, and might go $25-30/share. But the overall Tech market has been a little overheated this year. The combination of a pullback together with another world crisis could lead to a retrenchment over the next 3-4 months. Moreover, there are still major hurdles ahead, including getting past the FTC and the pending DRAM lawsuits.
Bottom line, I chose not to add to my shares last week, waiting for this decision. However, if I smelled that a settlement was in the works between Infineon/Micron and Rambus, I think the stock would go to $40-50/share to start, and I would be an aggressive buyer.
Apollo |
