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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (1280)	10/6/2003 6:37:12 PM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (3) of 110194

<ringing a bell> there may not be any bells -- if there was complete certainty at any point the exits would be too crowded to accommodate. But I'll use your response to embellish my thinking. I refuse to believe (that's what makes markets) that the market will suddenly plummet and continue to plummet without the internal signals from one of these five commentators turning bearish. The change in just one of them would be a signal to me to make my own evaluation, adjust my own risk/reward ratio. The track record is this: I've been a poster since May. The Dow was 8500. I have been reading a consistent line of posts on your thread (the ones here are very similar) to the effect that "the market is ready to drop like an overweight Sumo wrestler" or "I'm ready to buy Index puts" or "is this market a short or what?" and since that time the market measured by the Dow has gained 13%, much less gone down. The five commentators I identified are not cheerleaders, they just happen to have analyzed market action correctly. You know, I WANT the market to go down -- that would dovetail with my sense of what SHOULD happen, a la The Daily Reckoning commentary -- but I owe it to my family and to myself to do what is likely to be profitable. Stack and the others have kept out of any unprofitable short side trading and have allowed me sufficient confidence to do long "quick hitters" from time to time. Still, I do appreciate the reminders that the action on the downside could be swift and dramatic. I believe that as well. But, I don't believe that it will happen without any warnings being given. 1987, the best recent example of a sharp "no exit" selloff, had 7 weeks of preceding deteriorating market action.

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