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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: austrieconomist who wrote (1282)	10/6/2003 7:11:28 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

<I've been a poster since May and have been reading a consistent line of posts on your thread.> I don't know who've you've been reading, but here is roughly my positioning during this period. BTW this thread actually started June 11th, almost perfectly timed with the bond top. Virtually every post I've made at SI prior to then; May? has been related mostly to two subjects: energy and gold stocks. And this was the real time to buy stocks and when the powerful moves occurred. Subject 53273 The last three months has been a slow grind upward (and I'd say a massive distribution). I doubt if many investors are really up that much since early July: stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G April (I actually listed the whole portfolio at PM) 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy stocks 7% long aggressive stocks 3% short May: 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy 5% long aggressive stocks 5% short June: 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy 10% short July: 50% long gold 40% long energy 10% short August: 45% long gold (probably much higher because of the big move) 40% long energy 15% short September: around Labor day weekend I ran a whole series of posts here and at PM regarding the shift I saw underway, in the period since I've steadily gone to: 5% long gold stocks 40% long energy stocks 55% short I've felt the stock market has been vulnerable since late June, but I've hardly felt compelled to aggressively short it until now despite my bearish disposition. I will admit that the last several weeks has been a bit painful, however none of the investments (gold stocks, longs ,energy stocks) I use are like T-Bills. I experienced some pain in nearly every successful I've ever used. I don't think I've ever had a clean brake from the gate, but my profits are still enormous over the last three years, and this year is no exception. I guess I'd have to ask then how do these gurus have you positioned?

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