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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: bentway who wrote (14173)10/6/2003 9:44:11 PM
From: GraceZRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
You've probably never known anyone who has been to the moon either, but most rational individuals accept that people have been there. Statistical sampling is a widely accepted method of measuring things on a timely basis that are too time consuming to measure by counting every instance. Over and over it has been shown to have a reasonable degree of accuracy, far more accurate than the anecdotal evidence you or the people you know might encounter.

As to trusting the government's numbers, the thing you have to understand about the numbers put out by the government is that at any given time there is a large faction of the government that wishes for the numbers to say one thing while a different faction would like them to say something entirely different so who is in control? Most of the time the disagreements revolve around what can be inferred from looking at the numbers, not the numbers themselves.

No one would argue that there aren't limitations to trying to measure something like the number of people at any given time who wish to be employed who aren't. Maybe those people getting unemployment insurance simply want to sit out the full six months before they look for a job, maybe they are working under the table while they are getting unemployment, maybe those looking are extremely discouraged and have actually stopped looking but they answer the survey questions indicating they are still looking because they are ashamed to tell the truth. Maybe those people who are sampled say they want work when they really don't. How do you measure intent to look for a job or whether or not a person is telling the truth in a survey? Who is going to say they are working under the table when they are receiving unemployment insurance? If the numbers are flawed it is because the underlying populace is flawed.
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