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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (17798)	10/6/2003 11:03:45 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (5) of 78748

Sold TALK today, bought TVIN - looking at ABC TALK hit my sales limit today at 13.88$ after positive earnings announcement. However analyst estimate (5-7M$) were lowballed and below the run rate of the last quarters, so beating this was not a high hurdle to take. I try to get in the stock again at lower prices, as the story is still intact. TVIN looks like a risky bet to me, but at current prices I take the odds at 1.12$. Very low liquidity and while business has been on the romp order flow may be erratic in the future. But PE seems to be about 8 and this seems very cheap. I looked at ABC and while I like the valuation, i think there is too much headline risk due to FBI investigation. I also suspect margin pressure because the pharma companies get more careful about discounts to wholesalers to push drugs into the distribution system. I'll watch this one and see what happens, I think the drug wholesalers may be undervalued, they should have the same revenue growth as a whole than the pharma industry but yet the earnings multiples are much lower.

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