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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (39257)10/7/2003 5:00:52 AM
From: que seria  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Jay, here's an energy prognosis that would interrupt China
growth if true, but which I'm inclined to think is overdone pessimism. Maybe not quite a Club of Rome overstatement, though. Not an apparent Green either; the author debunks solar panels as a solution. In fact, he's more certain and much less sanguine about "the end" of the world as we know it than you are. His website name says it all. Maybe "grim reaper" was already taken?

dieoff.com

It is true, from all I've read (best single source: Big Dog's Boom Boom Room), that the dates of oil and NG production peaks across the world's producing basins are a consensus matter within a range of a few years, and already past or rapidly approaching. Also true that the giant fields peaking out aren't being offset by new discoveries, as essential for reserve replacement.

Lesson for me: Buy oil & gas producers with long-lived holdings, in preference to most energy trusts with their emphasis upon cash return from what are generally more static resource bases. Avoid companies that will spend all profits in an ever-worsening failure to stay in place on the production treadmill. I'll let you know what I buy; I'm waiting for October weather to play out, since I prefer North American NG producers. Right now the one company that stands out, from memory, is XTO, which is gas-weighted.
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