Russ, apologies if you believe my reference was to all YOUR posts with that particular comment. As the post said, these were mostly posts from others on your THREAD. For example, when this dialogue started, there were posts from Jim Willie, Deadbull and you, all of which were to the effect that the market was going to go down hard and promptly. This was a similar refrain to what has been posted from time to time on YOUR THREAD by others since May. Could this be right now? Of course, even Martin Weiss gets it right every now and then. Now, however, I fully agree with you that it is dangerous to be long with liquidity being drained from the U.S. banking system (and from China, for that matter). I had believed that a 14% MZM growth rate was inadequate to accomplish the Fed goal of sustaining the bubble. With the rate down to below 4% the past 2 plus months, that data being confirmed by the repurchase information you supplied from the N.Y. Fed, there is a risk of a big downside move in the U.S. markets.
<gurus positioned>
my "big" money is in my profit sharing plan and I am limited to mutual funds by the terms of the plan. FWIW, I am
8% Asian stocks (SJPNX,MACSX,MAKOX)
6% Gold stocks (TGLDX, GOLDX)
3% Energy stocks (ICENX)
5% Hedged mutual fund (HSGFX)
10% European Government Bond Fund (BEGBX)
68% Money Market (U.S. Treasury)Funds
I am cautious, as you can see. My gurus are that to me simply because they have a track record of being right more often than being wrong. This is a business of probabilities, as you know. So, if I see 5 guys, all of whom have a distinguished track record, all of whom are unrelated, all of whom use their own proprietary tracking systems, and all of whom say that there is no information revealed in their systems to suggest that the market is about to go down, then I have a high confidence level that it is not a good idea to make a big bet that the market is going down hard, and soon. Having said that, they all say that with information supplied through YESTERDAY. Information can change and I would expect that at some point opinions will change.
Thanks for all you do. |
