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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who started this subject	10/7/2003 6:00:50 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

More CRB-like demand (inflationary scramble) and pressure on bonds/financials: ntrs.com LME copper warehouse stocks have dropped from 980 thousand tonnes in April, 2002 to 570 on 10/07/03 For those looking for a commodity to speculate on, consider corn (May, 2004), commercials are long 59,441 contracts with options. World corn stocks to useage ratio only 12% (a 25 year low). -and China's low : The US Grain Council said Monday they are estimating the Chinese corn crop at 115 mmt or below after their annual tour of major growing regions in China. Last year China produced 121.3 mmt and exported 14.5 mmt. USDA's estimated a month ago their crop would be 118 mmt and exports 8.5 mmt. -and I suspect the USDA is high on their harvest estimate. Corn is very energy intensive, needs NG for fertilizer and fuel for irrigation. Corn prices are too low to support that kind of expense.

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