another thing to keep in mind is the futures prices.. the nyharbor price for gasoline can change on a dime. It is difficult at best to know what the inventories are in the world at any time.. Many speculators can be hoarding oil, it is not reported on any statistics and then a price drops or refinerary fire and all of a sudden oil comes out of no where or dries up... but you know that.. I am not sure I would be putting large bets on refining and marketing next year.. E&P yup..they make money. g but not as much if prices drop.
ps why wouldn't foreign refineries be able to meet new demands.. I am sure international refineries are ready.. Many in south american may be all changed over. I remember major international oils building large refineries throughout the world in early 80's . I expect these refineries are in better shape than ours.
good luck on refining and marketing.
ps marketing is big time overhead.. and tremendous exposure to epa , local laws. insurance , accidents. Barge explodes at Port Mobil last summer,, spills into rivers , creeks, leaking storage tanks, houses wells contaminated, local inspectors. for example last year major fine to Mobil in your state for letting vapors escape from filler tube at gas stations. failed to meet complaince tests... robberies of stores open 24hours... we had a guy in e.prov through a brick at the window of store , it was bullet proof and it bounced off the window and hit him in the head .. He sued us and won... same station was used as a cocane drop in rest room.. one car drive in and drop the stuff off in the hung ceiling and then another car would come bye and pick it up... refinery fires, terminal fires, tanks over filled, trucking accidents... all overhead in addition to the cost of the barrel.. Believe me no one wants this business in the majors they would like to get out if the right price came along.. Oh, safety,, you got tons of inspections from fire departments, on and on and on.. paper work...then add the cost of capital , taxes, and people and labor burden .. not much left .. for bottom line.. PLUS BAD PRESS ! |
