The last chart is of the HUI. Due to the correction we have had I was forced to change the degree of the subwaves previously shown, and now my current preferred count is here.
ttrader.com\'s%20charts&id=427&d=2
There are alternates and some very bullish ones that would have the HUI only part way through this 3, but they don't jive with TA indicators. TA indicators imo indicate the HUI is quite a ways down the road.
One other alternate that is very possible however is that the 3 ended where I have labeled the 'b'. This would infer we would still be in the 4, and perhaps starting a 'b' of 4. I currently prefer the option displayed, as the 'b' would otherwise have to be a 'v', and that subwave looks more b like to me.
I am neither bullish or bearish right here, ST, IT, or LT. Just going to wait and see what happens. If this 4 is over the HUI has to move on up and go through 200.
From that point onward, if it goes through 200, I don't expect a real long 5th wave. Something would have to change in the dollar, like it would have to extend and go way beyond the assumed low of the wave it appears to in. It could happen, we just have to wait and see.
What seems most likely to me is a sharp pullback in the general markets, but not the real McCoy. That will be followed by an election year dollar rally, which will drive the markets to new highs or a double peak, and knock the crap out of golds.
How far the dollar rebounds is yet a mystery, but if it say goes to 86, a 38 % retrace of the 3 takes it back to 99 plus. Last time it was there POG was 340ish. |
