I would think so, but let me fill you in on what I've just calculated about the "real labor market". Since I'm more than a bit curious about what's really going on, I went back over the Daily Treasury Statements (gov reports withholding taxes). The telemarketing and mortgage worker slow down should start showing up quickly here I'd think,
fms.treas.gov
Biderman's Trim Tabs provides this on a three week lag,
trimtabs.com
and if you want to pay him about ten grand for a subscription you can get it right up to date. I decided to spend a half hour myself on this(donations accepted <g>). The data shows a marked deterioration in wage tax receipts starting in mid-August. I think all the stimulus hit a brick wall about then:
Aug 15-21, 2003 29,112 vs 28,330 in 02, +2.8%
Aug 22- 28, 2003 19,208 vs 19,180 in 02 +0.1%
Aug 29-Sept. 4, 2003 32,387 vs 32,683(02) -0.9%
Sept 5-11, 2003 18,632 vs 18,900 (02) -1.4%
Sept 12-25, 2003 two week worth 51,129 vs 51,678 (02)-1.1%
Sept 26- Oct. 2, 2003 34,543 vs 34,420 +0.4%
Sad looking trend lately. Think Wall Street needs to start discounting a new slide. |
