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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: nspolar who wrote (83814)	10/8/2003 5:34:14 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) of 209892

as side comment, there are to many positions piled on shorting the USD. EUR is a big % of the UDX Economic news from EZ are far from stellar. GDP in Germany is 0.25 for the year, somewhat slower than the actual US GDP which I think is around 1% to 1.5% and unemployment in Germany is still rising. Budget deficits are close to 3.5% in France Germany and may be Italy. EZ trade surplus was meager 1 or 2 billion with the EUR 5% below today's levels German unemployment numbers were released today instead of tomorrow. Employment fell in Germany by 47,000 in US equivalent this is around 200,000 BIG number. The problem is that all FX players are trading of TA and expect the EUR to hit 1.20 and JPY 100. Only 5 weeks ago Citibank predicted 1.05 on the EUR and 1.20 JPY To many bets on one direction. Tomorrow Jobless claims can reverse the USD easy. Interestingly only a week ago some big honcho on Bloomberg predicted 1.13 by end of month

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