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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (1354)10/8/2003 8:14:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
russwinter,

I was talking to a title manager last week. The layoffs in the title insurance industry had started when rates shot up. They were just planning back then because there were still a lot of closings that required bodies. Now they are starting the actual layoffs. He thinks some title insurance companies in San Diego could lay off as much as 30% but hopefully less.

I assume the mortgage brokers will be doing same. However, they may not show up anywhere because many are either self employed or employed as independent contractors. Furthermore, if their income drop in half due to decrease in refi volume, that won't show up anywhere.

It will be months before we will see the indirect signals.

First, we should see credit card debt starting to pile up.

Second, or at the same time, we should see more draw downs on lines of credits.

Third, delinquencies for consumer debt start to climb.

Fourth, bankruptcy filings go up.

Fifth, foreclosures go up.

Last but not least, Greenspan resigns. Except no one knew it becasue no one understood what he was mumbling about in his letter of resignations.
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