Here's a magic formula for you. Take the spending level from fiscal year 1997-98 for all amounts spent by the State of California. Increase that amount by the rate of inflation since 1998, and adjust it for the population growth in California since 1998. Set that increased amount as your current level of spending.
If you do the math, here is what that yields:
$100.2 Billion (Level of all California government expenditures, 1997-98, as reported by the state itself at lao.ca.gov, selecting "all" as the option to display the chart for all state expenditures).
Increase by 13.25 percent (the percentage increase in the CPI since 1998 as yielded by the U.S. government's CPI calculator as found at data.bls.gov.
That yields a total level of state expenditures of $113,476,500,000 (1.02 Billion x 1.1325). Let's round that up to $113.5 Billion just to be nice.
Davis' current level of government expenditure, as reported by the State of California at the same link used above for 2003-04 is $154.7 billion, and the highest reported estimate of the deficit I have seen is $38 Billion. By cutting spending to its 1997-98 level as adjusted for inflation, as compared to its current level, the amount cut would be $41.2 Billion (154.7 Billion minus 113.5 Billion).
Now, of course, we need to adjust the budget upwards to account for population growth. California's total population when Davis took over in 1998 was 33,494,000 (source: capsweb.org. The most recent figures available indicate that the population of California as of 2002 was 35,116,033. (source U.S. Census Bureau: eire.census.gov. That's an increase of 1.62 million people in four years, or about 400,000 per year. If we extend that out to five years to account for 2003, then the total population increase during the Davis years would be right around 2 million. 2 million is just a little under 6 percent of the 33,494,000 population of California that Davis inherited in 1998, so rationally we can conclude that the budget "needs" of California would have increased by 6 percent during the Davis years due to population growth.
Therefore, we will increase the $113.5 Billion inflation adjusted 1998 spending level by 6 percent to account for the population increase since 1998. That leaves us with a comparable budget figure of $120.3 Billion.
So, if you adjust for inflation AND for population growth, and California spends at the rate it was spending in 1998 when Davis was first elected, California's current expenditure level would be $120.3 Billion. That is $34.4 Billion less than Davis' projected level of expenditure for 2003-04 as reported by the State of California in its official budget documents. The highest estimate I have seen of the budget deficit currently faced is $38 Billion.
So, AS, nearly every single cent of your budget deficit problem is gone if you simply roll back spending to 1998 levels as adjusted for inflation and population growth.
That isn't 2+2=7.
It's 2+2=4.
I am most interested in your response. Please note that I have cited to actual, verifiable figures at every step of this analysis, and I am sure that in responding you will see fit to do the same. |
