Imo the only effect is psychological. What do you do if you have dollars and need looneys, or have looneys and need schillings?
You stop by a bank and exchange them I would assume.
Currency markets are huge. It doesn't matter all that much what currency is used to buy/sell a commodity. It is the supply/demand curve of the commodity that matters, w/r to the commodity.
Same for currency. USD is going to pot because we have had too many bureaucrats in office for way too long. We need another terminator to kick them out. It is our deficit spending that has flooded the world with dollars, not the fact that oil did or did not trade in dollars. Holders are getting nervous, while Greenspam and Bush print more. Would you want to hold knowing that if you did the value might be halved within a couple of years? No, and this has nothing to do with oil transactions in dollars.
Again, imo.
Watch the TNX.
We are steadily marching closer to a general market top, and I think it will be a key top. It may be followed by a double top, in 04. I plan to be deep deep short, at some point. The shorties and bears continue to get reamed. Usually when they get reamed long enough, they eventually wind up being very right, but of course many have dropped by the wayside by that time.
I have not looked in a spell, but I think puts for Oct are huge. Once we get ops out of the way, the winds may change.
Message 19388195
I had earlier thought the TNX in a corrective wave, off the June low. But the more I watch it the more I think the move could be an impulse up, and just getting started. If this turns out to be true, it will wreak havoc, and you won't have to worry about gold. Gold should literally explode at some point. |
