Hello ACF Mike, <G'day again>>
... my, what have I done to deserve such caring attention from you?
Today has in fact been a good day, and given my predisposition to be happy, tomorrow promises to be even better.
Message 19386099
<<The strength of the key US stock indices has surprised even me lately. I was expecting the traditional September/October slump followed by a resumption of the Bull>>
… You get surprised too easily, and apparently are still unable to seek truth from facts.
The strength of the market is entirely due to Greensputin having blown an echo bubble. How do we know we are in an echo bubble? Because the same junk (Amazon, Intel, Yahoo, Ebay, …) are up, yielding no cash returns, based on no familiar valuation, unseen by Greensputin, and cheered on by BurnAndKaput. BTW, Yahoo is now value equally as General Motors.
In the meantime, I will stay with this script,
achamchen.com
<<December 21st, 2002
I believe stocks, especially the high-priced American variety, can easily have another 50+% to correct, possibly triggered by increasing debt problems, impending housing implosion, rising fiscal doubt, and more plausible mass exodus of panicked and newly unemployed retiree-wannabies.
There are too many events can go wrong and I cannot fashion a convincing story to make an offshore investor want to hang around. The offshores will return, but only after the market clears and traditional philosophical and monetary values reappear.
The elapsed time of correction is dependent on the FED and the Administration - how hard will they fight the quick sand with stimulus that further mortgages the future and postpone market clearing?>>
<<The writing is now so clearly on the wall that even the permabears are beginning to waver>>
… As there are no permabears on this BBR thread, and so you must be talking about other folks on other threads. They may or may not be wavering, and if they are, it is good news, because …
achamchen.com
at the end of a bear market, all the bulls and half of the bears are supposed to die off. So, let the culling begin.
<<my boring laissez-faire 100% long value-oriented multi-cap US equities portfolio is up close to 40% ytd>>
… That is nice work, in an environment where the DJIA is up 16% YTD, S&P500 is up 15%, and the Nasdaq is up 37%. In fact, according to Barron’s Mutual Fund Review, the category average YTD gain for:
large cap core is 13%
large cap growth is 16%
large cap value is 13%
mid cap core is 20%
mid cap growth is 22%
mid cap value is 21%
multi cap core is 16%
multi cap growth is 22%
multi cap value is 16%
The top fund in each category indicates a YTD return of about 3 x the respective average, and so you must be in the right fund, perched high, unable to exit without cutting in the government to fund the WAT-WOT effort, waiting for the inevitable fall.
<<observation not for bragging rights, but only as a simple comparison for you of how we brain-dead longs are doing). I am expecting another 3% to 5% by year end and 25%+ in FY 2004 for said brain-dead US equities longs.>>
… Of course not, and it would never occur to me that you are that sort of person. All numbers, whether in dollops, tranches, %s or absolutes, are simply helpful to put all of our comments in context.
BTW, what funds are you in so we can watch along with you.
I am up by 27% YTD on actively managed assets (excluding real estate and a portion of bond holding) achamchen.com , and this is following 2002’s’s 12%, 2001’s 12%, -5% (peak to awful bottom) and -3% end-to-end in 2000, and 35% in 1999.
Amazingly, and perhaps more gratifyingly, my 2003 result is done without my cash balance dropping below 30% of gross asset, or 40+% of actively managed gross asset, and even more astoundingly, whatever the volatility, my portfolio never went more than 0.5% below beginning of year count.
<<At some point the pain will become too much to bear (ha!) for all but the most committed doomsters>>
What pain? Where doomsters?
BTW, the true trial by fire of the bulls is still in our future, for all the reasons you know but do not believe, and I <<won't bore you by reiterating them>>
<<Keep buying the yellow metal!>>
… That is my intention, you know, buy low and sell high, like so achamchen.com and thus achamchen.com .
On this,
Message 19388240
<<>>ACFlyer Mike dropping in to mark the top …
Would you care to elaborate, Jay? Top of what? And daily, weekly, monthly, whatever? Please explain so that I can more easily bake this sentence in a pie and return it to you for your consumption, with my compliments, at the appropriate time.>>
I am figuring that this is a top in sentiment, before the tears starts flowing, before too long, inevitably, because we are in a bear market illuminated by false hope and brightened misleading statistics. I may be wrong, but not too wrong, and certainly not nearly as fatally as a bull believer would be mistaken.
<<It's clear that you don't invest exactly as you preach>>
… This is rather cryptic, because I invest thus achamchen.com and I believe so achamchen.com .
<<your endlessly predicted TEOTWAWKI seems to be always just out of reach>>
… tantalizingly delicious, is it not?
I believe strongly that the journey to TeoTwawKi must be enjoyed, and to enjoy, we must anticipate, so that we may enjoy it before, during, and then after, savoring each twist and relishing every turn.
BTW, the TeoTwawKi script Message 19366684 <<October 2nd, 2003>> is not only still valid, but is being setup to be even more vividly exciting still.
Given the current Greensputin struggle and the BurnAndKaput thrash to delay the inevitable, they are simply prolonging the excitement until such time that your demographic storm hits.
Chugs, Jay |
