Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (39436)	10/10/2003 11:12:52 AM
From: LPS5	Read Replies (2) of 74559

The facts are the markets are up... That is probably a fact, but isn't necessarily: it depends completely upon the time frame you're examining. ...for all the wrong reasons... That's an opinion. There are no definitive "right" or "wrong" reasons, in particular with a defining characteristic of financial markets being nonstationarity. ...and so the truth is the markets will fall... That is not the "truth." That's an opinion taking the form of a prediction. ...hard and deep. That, too, is an opinion within a prediction. As are, for brevity's sake, assertions about what is and is not expensive (or cheap). I'm not interested in making personal predictions or, for that matter, engaging in conversations about specific prices and markets...but I do find financial epistemology profoundly interesting and personally relevant. To what extent do to ascribe predictive value to historical precedent? LPS5

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