09:48 ET ALTR: Lowering est as we remained concerned about
sluggish end demand -- JP Morgan 18.17 -0.03: Due to a
strong beginning to the quarter, JP Morgan expects ALTR to
meet firm's 3Q revenue and EPS estimates of $210.0 mln and
$0.10, respectively. Despite a strong uptake of new
products, firm remains concerned about sluggish end demand
and is lowering its C03 revenue and EPS estimates from
$830.3 mln and $0.38 to $820.3 mln and $0.37. Firm also
lowering its C04 revenue and EPS estimates from $995.0 mln
and $0.47 to $955.0 mln and $0.46, respectively.
www.briefing.com
• We expect mostly positive news during earnings season in semiconductors, as we believe order rates are strong in the PC and
wireless end markets, while our checks in the wireline end market continue to indicate sluggish end demand. Pricing has begun
to stabilize, and should drive strong performance from memory-related semiconductor stocks.
• Our checks in the PC semiconductor space indicate business conditions have strengthened in 3Q03 with the emergence of a
back-to-school season and a continued shift towards laptops. We expect upside to results along with seasonal guidance from
Intel and AMD with potential for upside to 4Q03 estimates. Inventory also appears to be relatively lean since PC growth
continues to upside.
• Within the wireless end market, our recent checks with cell phone manufacturers indicate that most are concerned about
component shortages during 4Q03, particularly flash, SRAMs, and transceivers. We believe this should drive strong results and
guidance for companies such as AMD, TI and RFMD, with the possibility of increased component pricing during 1Q04.
• Although wireline end demand remains sluggish, our telecom equipment analyst believes total wireline spending
bottomed during 1Q03, and our checks indicate some communications OEMs have recently increased order rates to Xilinx.
However, our checks also indicate this recovery has not spread to other PLD manufacturers, and we are lowering estimates on
Altera.
• Although it appears overall 4Q03 guidance might be cautious, we believe a cautious stance by semiconductor companies should
be viewed a positive since it appears order rates for PC and wireless component companies remain strong and all indications
point to a continued economic recovery combined with a strong Christmas season.
jpmorgan.com |
