Michael; You realize that in the last year we already had "two"
corrections, "about 20% if added together" and the market came
roaring back..at the worst now I see 7000 as a support level,
the chances of it going below that are very very slim.
If it were to go below that and any bears started showing glee
they would be taking their life in their own hands. I can't
remember reading about any one who rejoiced over a big market crash
and lived very long to brag about.
The ones who so called predicted the last few should be wealthy as
all get out..but they are sucking hind tit.
The kind of 25% to 30% crash you are talking about if it happened
all at one time, the markets would close, and you would not get
to buy fraz on the bottom. The mutual funds would pick up all
the bargains before your bid was even looked at.
Shorts would get bought in before it was half way down, ( stock
available for borrowing gets called in a crash, it's a pipe dream
for thoes who think they can short and ride the market down )
As stocks are sold off, ( what is out on loan has to come in,
and brokers don't need your OK to buy you in, when stock is called
that happens hand in hand with it.
If your frozen because you belive a big crash is comeing, what you
might save has already been made, heck the bulls can ride a 30%
down turn and still be ahead. The bears have lost their shirt
in the last two years..way worse than in any market crash on
record.
I'm cautious and not running with the momentum buyers, but I'm
fully invested, at my age 60% is in bonds, only 15% in stocks
the rest is cash and hard assets such as local real estate.
BTW local real estate "IF" you look good for bargans , is one of
the best investments you can make. Doing the leg work and getting a release on a confused deed, can pay off very good.
You don't want real-estate that's over valued just like you don't
want stocks that are over valued, find neglected real estate in a "growing" area, and track down the owners. More often than not it's not up for sale because they don't know how to sell it.
Stocks are not the only way to make a little money. I'm working on
one now that if I get it, it will be about 3 bagger in 6 months,
or at least a double.
For me Value investing is just buying something for less than it's
book value, it's assets and or cash on hand add up to more than the
price.
Jim
PS. not long ago this thread was looking like a "growth" thread
and not a value one. BTW look at IPT..don't worry if it goes
down some more..keep enough back to buy more of it, were else
you going to make 18% dividend even if the stock don't go up,
it's now selling just a tad above book value.
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