These low pressure systems are a little deep for this early in the season. We have had one heavy surf episode already, and the next low should generate decent seas as well. Of course the WNW swell comes down the Strait best--and I'd guess later Sunday or Monday for that (this is a one minute forecast from home...)
See the low filling on the BC coast--and good WNW winds behind it. I'm still on LWOP, but I check out the MM5 a
few times a week:
atmos.washington.edu
Our office does not forecast swell moving down the Strait, but the official forecast for the coast is below (the swell, IMHO, looks overdone a bit--when the low is deep enough to generate those seas, it is quite a ways offshore still, and those seas will go SE toward srn Oregon.
Here is when the low is probably deepest, with the winds in the "bent back occlusion" the strongest:
atmos.washington.edu
In the forecast synopsis, I see that the low is supposed to deepen to 970mb--the MM5 from the GFS must be deeper than
the MM5 off the eta model...
In any event, plenty of surf.
So you jst have to find out when the winds go slack or easterly in the Strait now, heheh.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
PZZ100-110430- SYNOPSIS FOR THE INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST INCLUDING THE OLYMPIC COAST NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY- SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 47N 143W WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 970 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND MID-DAY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUN.
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2003
...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN...
TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 25 TO 35 KT... WIND WAVES 5 TO 6 FT... W SWELL 10 TO 12 FT AT 11 SECONDS. RAIN DEVELOPING.
SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT... WIND WAVES 5 TO 7 FT... W SWELL 17 FT AT 10 SECONDS. RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS.
SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 35 KT... WIND WAVES 5 OR 6 FT... W SWELL 25 FT AT 11 SECONDS. SHOWERS.
SUN...W WIND 25 TO 30 KT... WIND WAVES 4 OR 5 FT... W SWELL 24 FT
SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT... WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT... W SWELL 18 FT.
COLUMBUS DAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT... WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT... W SWELL 10 TO 12 FT.
TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT... WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT... W SWELL 11 TO 16 FT
WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT... WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT... W SWELL 11 TO 16 FT.
I'm not to keen on the written forecast anymore. It is generated by computer--based on what the forecaster seeds a so-called gridded database. The NWS is going down the toilet, the new system is meteorologically unsound. You might as well skip the forecasters entirely and look at the models on your own. It is called IFPS--and it is a huge mistake. But that is another story for another post;-)
All in my opinion of course, the official story on macro-derived forecasts from forecaster tampered gridded data is entirely different. (So long as you don't speak to the science officers of the NWS...) |
