I'd like to thank Mike, Eric and Jim for their thoughts related to Qualcomm.
It is obvious from the quality of their comments that they have thoroughly studied this and broader topics. While they may even at times draw different conclusions in prior messages on Qualcomm, with Eric and Jim being at opposite poles of the spectrum, I respect them each for how they have worked to gather the data and understand things. And then to share it with the rest of us. <g>
Jim, one thing I am not convinced about are the very very generous numbers you use, ie "most consultants estimate the number of wireless subs to be over 2B by the end of 2007". I agree with your conclusions, but I don't quite see how we get to 2B in 4 years, up from 170 million now.
Yes, I understand about the POTENTIAL of M2M, but that is mostly still on drawing boards, NOT in widespread commercial distribution and use.
On the other hand, as 3G gets firmly off the ground, Mr. Market will hopefully price the future into the present stock price. So that by 2007, the stock price may begin to resemble what's expected in 2012. This will be the setting that Mike refers to when there are times that the Market will overvalue Qualcomm.
When that happens, our good Uncle will be happier, and won't be confined to sitting around watching Cisco and all those other dogs he owns doing nothing. <vbg>
So what's my strategy? Actually, I'm hoping Rambus catches fire with successful court decisions, makes some huge leaps, ala Sandisk <grumble, grumble>, and I can invest some or all of the Rambus proceeds into supplementing my longterm Qcom investment. LOL
Best to all,
Apollo |
