Apollo, RE: Qualcomm potential and “....I am not convinced about are the very very generous numbers you use, ie "most consultants estimate the number of wireless subs to be over 2B by the end of 2007". I agree with your conclusions, but I don't quite see how we get to 2B in 4 years, up from 170 million now.”
Apollo, the 2B+ by the end of 2007 is the forecast for the total number of world-wide wireless subs and with 3G that represents Qualcomm’s “addressable“market. You’re right, all of those 2B+ will not be in the CDMA camp by then as it will be a gradual process. Siemens is saying by 2010 all phones sold in Europe will be 3G (some could be EDGE), and the Chinese MII is saying by 2010 80% of their 600M subs will be 3G. I would then imagine that by 2010 (perhaps sooner), most all phones being sold would be 3G dual mode (GSM and CDMA- all versions). A better way of looking at it would be CDMA handset sales today numbering 100M growing to 600M+/- annually in the 2007 to 2010 timeframe as the world converts to 3G. Additionally, Qualcomm will be able sell into the GSM market for the first time starting early next year with the MSM6300 chipset (GSM/GPRS + CDMA2000 1X). In 2004 , even before 3G sales gain traction, Qualcomm’s addressable market immediately expands from the CDMA niche of 20%+ of handset sales to virtually 100% with the ability to sell to GSM carriers throughout the world.
Thanks for your insight on Rambus, I’m a buyer again. During the “downdraft” I finally had to liquidate RMBS, SNDK, and a number of the other GG names. I always believed RMBS got stiffed by the biased judge, but didn’t have the conviction to hold thru all the turmoil.
Sorry for the confusion- jim |
