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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 295.15

-2.3%

Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12028)	10/11/2003 9:33:21 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 95403

True, but it you are risk averse and don't try to buy low and sell some high, then wouldn't owning an index be better if all you get is index returns? Put another way: If you are getting index matching returns while taking specific stock risk, then it doesn't seem you are being fairly compensated for the extra risk with NVLS. I own AMAT and ask myself that question. My POTENTIAL answer is AMAT is like a mini fund of the smaller companies as it is a leader in many of the tools. NVLS is not so large. It has a smaller sub set of tools and its integration of SFAM's CMP platform has hurt its overall results. Also, if you look at Don's PEG table Message 19391060 it shows AMAT at 2.22 and LRCX at 1.33. This is saying that, all else being equal, LRCX is a better buy even after it went up 290% from the bottom vs AMAT's 99% gain. I know LRCX is already into FY'04 so this may distort the PEG numbers and make LRCX look better. A PEG analysis based on the next 4 quarters would be better, but it is a ton of work to do. UTEK went up even more (346%)and only has a PEG of 1.80 so it still looks better than AMAT. I guess what I am pointing out is some of you have jumped on Cary's bandwagon for his list of stocks. He has suggested I "upgrade" my stocks (UTEK and LRCX) to his list but if I had done so, I'd not have had the same good results. Perhaps the time to "upgrade" is at market cycle tops since it gives you protection on the downside. But, this implies you can call tops. My theory is you make more money buying and selling around a core position if you use some of the lessor known names as you get more volatility. Kirk

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