Ibexx--Seems to me this one is clear as day a major momentum stock, that is certain to crash in a big way before long. (Course it MIGHT double again first, who knows. Thats why its so difficult to short.)
Why crash? Basically because the underwriters were the class act,
just went public, and there is no way it was priced at 1/6 of its comparables value. 20% under, to give investors a good pop, natch. Possible quasi reasonable 100% appreciation in a few months based on very bullish story, optimism. OK. But 6x? What's the major development since offering?
Its the perfect MoMO stock. In a general way it seems like its onto
a really big thing. But few people understand it in any great detail.
And even fewer have figured out the say three to five year upper/lower
earnings potential. You can be sure the underwriters did, together
with management.....
This one strikes me as closest to Netscape, only on steroids. Like
Netscape right after offering there was reason to believe it was a
huge potential market, and the leader in it. Like Netscape also,
earnings over even medium term are/were difficult to predict. And
long term dominance cannot be at all assured. Like Netscape also,
true class act people involved in co. Like Netscape it will crash
after its furious initial run up. Only more so. Much more so, cause
the run up has been so incredible.
I mean trading at 360x consensus 98 earnings???? (And you know that
concensus has got to be heavily lead by the underwriters; who else
has been inside the story enough???)
Sure it was strong Friday....But when it starts to go, its gonna
CRASH. Hey, may be higher 5 years from now, but I very much doubt
it will be six mo, or one year from now...I could see this thing
gapping down 20 pts on some mornings opening, in a twitchy market,
with some negative article in say Barrons/Forbes that goes into big detail with credible sources.
No position in RMBS, long or short.
Am I wrong? Just MHO. |
