After the mm5 winds, check out ww3 model for seas...
fnmoc.navy.mil
hmmm, try this URL then go to ww3 for East Pac.
fnmoc.navy.mil
Oh, I see--you will have to cut and paste those into
the browser. SI must not do 'https'
Significant Wave Height (ft.) and Direction, the first
line of maps is all you should need. That is all I look
at anyway.
25 footers tonight and Sunday--I should think. That said,
the NWS has called for 30-40 ft. IMHO, that is a bit over
the top, heheh. The model can run a bit high and it is
easy to get over-excited early in the season.
What is 'rincon'? Some place the surfers go?
The UW calls the area of strongest pressure gradient the 'poisonous tail of the bent back occlusion'.
That is the area that will generate the highest seas,
and is probably what is going on with this one too.
I googled and found a case-study. Have not read it
yet, but at first glance, has the same shape as this
most recent storm. What you really need is a chart
of pressure changes--issalobars. Where the bent back
front gets chased by strong pressure rises, that is
where the strong WNW winds occur. etc etc
oregonstate.edu
Pressure change couplets, an area of strong pressure
falls near the low, followed by an area of pressure
rises--in this case behind the bent back trof--this is
one of the features you really have to watch for high
winds. Aim a strong SSW-NNE pressure change
couplet up through Puget Sound and
you get a southerly wind storm.... |
