We are drifting along, waiting for Arafat to die. A little "benign neglect" is not a bad idea.
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October 12, 2003
DIPLOMATIC MEMO
Sharon Acts Tough, Sensing U.S. Assent
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN NEW YORK TIMES
WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 — At times, even those who say they are close friends and allies acknowledge that President Bush and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel try each other's patience.
It happens when Mr. Sharon, reading from index cards, lectures an irritated Mr. Bush about the dangers of terrorism. Or when Mr. Bush pushes hard to ease conditions in the West Bank and Gaza, and the Israeli prime minister pushes back, warning that his governing coalition would rebel against such steps.
"What if our government falls?" the Israeli leader was quoted by an aide as telling the American president earlier this year. "Who else would lead the country and make peace?"
But whether Mr. Sharon and Mr. Bush are closer than any Israeli and American leaders in history, as some say, or whether they have respect for each other but little personal chemistry, as others say, the Bush administration's involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, and its willingness to push either side, is at a low ebb.
Administration aides say a kind of hiatus has settled in, primarily because the Palestinian leadership is in disarray and the Bush administration has declined to talk with the Palestinian leader, Yasir Arafat. Some administration officials say Israel would ignore American pressure anyway.
"On the Palestinian side, there is no one to talk to," one official said. "On the Israeli side, there is no one who is listening."
While the Palestinians squabble over their leadership, Mr. Sharon is responding to the latest attacks on Israelis by carrying out the most aggressive steps in a year and a half, including the airstrike a week ago on what Israeli officials said was a terrorist training camp inside Syria.
Though there was pressure on Mr. Bush to criticize Israel both from within his administration and from European partners in the peace efforts, he did no such thing. Instead, he declared that Israel "must not feel constrained" in defending itself.
Except for Mr. Sharon's acceding to the American request not to expel Yasir Arafat, Israel does not appear to feel constrained in other areas either.
The United States has stated publicly that it opposes Israel's expansion of Jewish settlements on the West Bank and construction of parts of a barrier to separate Jewish settlers from nearby Palestinian communities. But Israel proclaims its determination to go ahead with both actions.
A week ago, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said the Bush administration was having "intense discussions" with Israel about these issues and weighing such options as a reduction in loan guarantees enacted earlier this year by Congress. But there is no sign that such a step is in the offing.
Arab, European and United Nations diplomats who have been drawn into the peace efforts through drafting a peace plan known as the road map say they fear that Mr. Sharon has assumed that, for whatever reason, Mr. Bush is not in a position to ask for a halt to Israeli actions.
Indeed, they say they doubt that Mr. Bush will re-engage in the peace efforts before the American election next year, out of fear that whatever he does will draw criticism, especially among the conservative Christian and Jewish supporters of Israel who form a part of his political base.
"The word you hear a lot of is `disengaged,' " said a diplomat involved in the peace plan. "Sharon figured out long ago that all he has to do is the absolute minimum to keep Bush off his back and at his side. If the United States is disengaged, that's exactly what Sharon wants."
The construction of a barrier by Israel has drawn fire from critics who regarded it as an intended marker for the boundaries of a future, shrunken Palestinian state. Mr. Bush has said that, in principle, there should not be a barrier that snakes its way through the West Bank.
Despite these warnings, the Israeli cabinet last month approved construction of separate barriers around Palestinian settlements in the West Bank, leaving open the possibility that they would be connected to the larger wall around the entire area next year.
It was not lost on anyone in the Bush administration that completion of the most contested parts of the barrier could become an issue in the middle of the American presidential election, when Mr. Bush might feel even more reluctant to criticize it.
American officials say that, if completed in the way Israel envisions, the barrier could end up creating an Israeli-dominated West Bank with "cantonments" set aside for Palestinians, precluding the contiguous Palestinian state envisioned by the peace plan.
Some administration officials say they feel that Mr. Bush, in his most private conversations with Mr. Sharon, has not expressed American opposition to the barrier forcefully enough. Others say Mr. Sharon did not choose to hear what Mr. Bush said.
"The Israelis sometimes think that a red light is a yellow light," said an administration official. "And they think a yellow light is a green light."
Despite these assessments, people who have watched Mr. Bush up close dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian issues say that he has grown in confidence and that he speaks passionately without notes about what has to happen to create a Palestinian state existing side by side with Israel in peace.
The president is also said to regard Mr. Sharon as a shrewd, tough and determined political warrior ready to make peace with his former enemies.
But it is unclear whether Mr. Bush has pressed Mr. Sharon to discuss in detail what the borders of a Palestinian state would look like, or what his final intentions are for the barrier.
Whereas Mr. Sharon is what one American called "a complete map freak" who loves to point out the security problems posed by every village, hill, ravine, tree and rivulet in the West Bank, Mr. Bush is said to have little interest in such details.
While sympathetic to Mr. Sharon's problems and anxiety about terrorist attacks, Mr. Bush also established a warm personal connection with Mahmoud Abbas, the first Palestinian prime minister, and wanted to give him some latitude to make a deal with Israel, administration officials said.
In that phase, some aides said, he was frustrated that Israel was not moving more quickly to take steps that would give Mr. Abbas enough credit in Palestinian eyes to crack down on Palestinian militant groups.
But in the end, Mr. Sharon knows that whether for political reasons or personal convictions — probably a mixture of both — Mr. Bush does not wish to stand up to Israel right now, many in the administration say.
Israel's citing of a terrorist link to the base in Syria that it bombed — a link that posed a threat to American troops in Iraq, Israelis explained — seemed likely to persuade Mr. Bush not to criticize. To some diplomats, it was almost as if Israel tailored the attack to suit Mr. Bush's well-known concerns.
"Both the Israelis and Palestinians could have done a lot more, a lot sooner," said an administration official of the peace efforts over the last few months. But for now, American officials say, there is nothing to be gained from pressing Israel, as long as there is no united Palestinian leadership to respond.
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