The California Democrats are clueless. They stick with this attitude, the Republicans will have the majority in the Senate and House there next year.
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Don't bet on Arnold Schwarzenegger to fail now
By Daniel Weintraub -- Bee Columnist - (Published October 9, 2003)
For all his bravado and bluster, and even with his convincing victory on Tuesday, Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't going to get very far as the state's chief executive unless he can persuade the Legislature to pass his program, or, as Gov. Gray Davis once put it, implement his vision.
But the doubters should proceed with caution. California's new governor is a man who has succeeded at virtually everything he has done in life, against great odds. Don't look for him to fail now.
Schwarzenegger starts with the advantage of having a vision. He wants to reduce taxes and burdens on business and make government more efficient, with the hope of ultimately increasing revenue for the programs he and the Democrats in the Legislature value. His top priorities for spending will be those programs that promote opportunity for all -- starting with public education.
Over the long term, it's a vision that a broad cross-section of Californians will support. But getting there will not be easy.
Schwarzenegger must propose a balanced budget to the Legislature by Jan. 10, and he faces an estimated $8 billion to $10 billion gap between projected spending and revenues. He says he'll tack another $4 billion onto that shortfall by repealing, on his first day in office, the recent tripling of the car tax.
Schwarzenegger has made his job tougher by refusing to prepare the voters for the tough choices ahead. If he sticks to his no-tax pledge, he cannot balance the budget without deep cuts in health and social services, and he steadfastly avoided specifics on that front during the campaign. So Californians might be taken aback when he informs them that his solution to the state's fiscal mess will be painful.
Democrats in Sacramento and in the wider political circles are divided on how to receive him. Paul Maslin, the chief pollster for Davis, says Democrats should give no quarter. In the bitterness of the election night defeat, Maslin called Schwarzenegger's victory the "Triumph of the Swill" in a mean-spirited reference to a 1934 documentary on the rise of Adolf Hitler.
"Fight like hell," Maslin said when I asked him how Democrats should respond. "Fight like hell. This is real. This is serious. This is ongoing. This is the first battle. You fight this guy every step of the way and the people behind him. You don't ever let him up. The Legislature may talk about cooperation, that's fine, they've got to do their job, but in terms of Democrats, we fight and we fight and we fight."
State Sen. Sheila Kuehl, a Democrat from Santa Monica and a candidate to replace John Burton as Senate leader next year, was contemptuous toward the new governor. She said it will be the Senate's job to "save the state ... from ignorance" and added that "this guy has no idea how to run the state." Some Democrats, she said, might not bother showing up for his first State-of-the-State speech.
"What's this guy got to say to us about the state of the state?" Kuehl asked. "Nothing."
Kuehl's venom might not be shared by all Democrats. I received an e-mail late Tuesday from one lawmaker -- Assemblywoman Lois Wolk of Yolo County -- who said she looked forward to working with Schwarzenegger on government reforms that she and other centrists have been pursuing, to no avail, in the Capitol. But even those Democrats who welcome the new governor civilly will have trouble voting for deep reductions in programs that help the infirm and the poor.
Schwarzenegger will find it nearly impossible to win the votes he needs even for some of the cuts Davis proposed earlier this year but could not get through the Legislature. These include reductions in payments to doctors and hospitals that care for the poor, rollbacks of some of the recent expansions in Medi-Cal, and lower grants for the aged and welfare mothers.
His best chance for success lies in somehow treading water for a year or two while waiting for the economy to improve and conducting a serious review -- not a 60-day audit -- aimed at restructuring the way the state does business. He will find that the $13 billion in waste Sen. Tom McClintock spoke often about does not exist. But if he can detail his former opponent to find say, $2 billion or $3 billion that is doable, and doable in relatively quick fashion, it would be a major contribution.
And don't forget the federal government. Schwarzenegger has vowed to form a coalition of big-state governors whose states are burdened by the cost of serving illegal immigrants. President Bush and the Republicans who control Congress have many reasons to want to help, not the least of which is the 2004 presidential election. California can credibly claim at least $5 billion in these costs for the schools and other programs. If Bush delivers, both he and the new governor would see their popularity soar in this state.
We learned during the campaign that Schwarzenegger does not believe in playing by the same old political rules. I suspect the same will hold true for his administration. Expect surprises. Expect success.
The Bee's Daniel Weintraub can be reached at (916) 321-1914 or at dweintraub@sacbee.com. Readers can see his daily Weblog at www.sacbee.com/insider |
